You will notice that when I am formulating an opinion of the real estate market, I often use stats from Tahoe Donner. While Tahoe Donner is in Truckee and 20 miles from the lake, it is the only community in the area with both a setting consistant enough and sample size large enough to provide meaningful conclusions. In Tahoe Donner there are more than 6000 single family homes. The terrain is consistantly alpine and the number of homes with either a golf course setting or panoramic view are not significant enough to influence the average value in the area.
The graphs linked here ( 2007 / 2008 ) illustrate what I call the negotiation gap. The negotiation gap is the difference between asking price and sales price. Plottiing the sales of single family homes in Tahoe Donner, Jan-May this year and last year clearly illustrates how this gap has grown. And as this rift grows so does the Buyer’s advantage in this market. And not just in Tahoe Donner but every where in this market.
By the way, inventory is also ballooning…
There will be a stage in this market where sales will increase significantly as buyer’s finally decide to take advantage of the conditions. Probably starting this summer. There won’t be an immediate correction in prices though. The supply in just to great. The supply must come down below 6 months. Today its over 10 months. I believe this means the smart buyer is looking for their dream Tahoe home now while there is still a problem. By the time you’re part of the solution it is too late.
